Monthly Intelligence on OECD Grid Resilience
One report per month from July 2026 onward. Strategic briefs, themed analyses, and flagship annuals — each calibrated against the SSI Index© per-substation methodology, peer-reviewed and published under CC BY-SA 4.0. The cadence is the discipline; the order is responsive to events on the playing field.
Published & In Progress
Open Methodology and the Foundation Steward Model
Addressed to DG ENV / DG CLIMA / DG R&I leadership on the institutional architecture required to steward an open-licensed asset-level adaptation-intelligence methodology. Documents the Italian Foundation vehicle, the data-bridge architecture, and the open-core scoring engine commitment.
The Grid Already Prices Location; Zonal Markets Refuse to Read the Signal
Electricity grids have a locational price. Nodal markets (most of the US) put it in the price where it becomes a hedgeable congestion rent. Zonal markets (most of Europe) suppress it, so the cost of location is paid out of market as socialised redispatch / constraint / MSD spend — DE €3.08bn (2025) + GB £2.21bn (FY2025–26) + IT €1.48bn (2024), converging on ~7 bps of GDP under three-denominator normalisation. First empirical demonstration of the SSI Index v4.2 W1–W10 anti-maladaptation gate against per-zone locational-arbitrage economics on a correctly-sited BESS demonstrator.
The 2026 European Heatwave Reads on the v4.2 Modifier Surface
Interim read on the first wave of the July 2026 European heat episode across France, Italy, Spain, Germany, and Greece. Reads the failure surface — reactor derating, rail catenary cascades, wildfire ignitions, transformer nameplate derating — through the R4 × R6d × R9 modifier stack and the R10 distributive-justice layer at LAU-2 granularity.
State of OECD Grid Adaptation Intelligence 2026
The inaugural cohort-wide read of OECD critical-power-supply network adaptation. Presents the per-substation Re composite trajectory across 39 jurisdictions and three case studies. Argues that the empirical layer the EU Climate Risk Assessment identified as missing for critical power-supply networks now exists.
Upcoming Schedule
Cascade and Compound Risk: Tail-Risk Methodology for Civil Critical Infrastructure
The methodological deep-dive on cross-system cascade modelling: Markov degradation, Monte Carlo Gaussian copula, 5σ tail prism, R9 compound-concurrence modifier. Publishes per-substation pre-event Re ledger alongside the observed failure record for the historical-event battery.
The SSI Index v4.23 4-Paper Publication Slate — Coherent Scientific Program at Asset-Level Infrastructure Adaptation
Reads the four-paper publication slate as a coherent scientific program: P1 (CRM) operationalises the Reckien NAM framework as an ex-ante screening classifier at 725,462-substation × 39-OECD-country scale; P2 (ERE) provides atmospheric-corrosion damage functions feeding R6c/R6d modifiers; P3 (JIPR v16) provides Markov degradation priors; P4 (EE) formalises the anti-maladaptation filter hypothesis and empirically tests NAM-classification-filtered portfolio allocation against five naive baselines. Companion counterpart to TA-01 at the market-design layer. Targets the Barcelona plenary window.
Compute Sovereignty and the 4IR Civil-Society Surface
Cross-cutting analysis on the convergence of grid-resilience, compute-infrastructure, civic equity, and climate adaptation as facets of a single per-substation analytical surface. Develops the EU AI Act implementation milestones and per-jurisdiction hyperscaler concentration trajectories.
Nodal & Locational Price Discovery — Definitive 2026-11
First full definitive edition of the Locational Value series per its two-clock recurrence (fast rolling 365-day observed layer / slow annual regulator anchors). Rolls DE/GB/IT redispatch anchors to their latest complete year (Terna MSD consuntivo ~October is the binding latest input) and applies the four committed growth items: (i) first full year-over-year trend-panel draw once DE has 4 points, IT 3, GB 2; (ii) ERCOT onboarding as the priced-vs-socialised counterpoint; (iii) policy-landscape tracker (GB REMA + EU bidding-zone review + German zone-split + MACSE); (iv) gate-delta upgrade — SSI Index per-substation observations (T1) replacing modelled (T2) in the §6.1 W1–W10 anti-maladaptation gate. Advances report version toward 1.0.0.
Nodal & Locational Price Discovery — Interim 2027-05
Second edition of the Locational Value series per its two-clock recurrence — interim market-only refresh landing every May. Rolls the fast-layer market-observation exhibits (basis duration curve, per-market uplift, uplift-vs-basis scatter) on the latest 365-day window of ENTSO-E / GME zonal prices; rolls the GB constraint anchor to FY2026-27 (GB fiscal year closes 31 March); carries forward DE / IT / demand anchors from the November 2026 definitive with re-stamped as-of dates. Growth items deferred to the next November definitive. Version bump: minor semver with `-interim` tag.
The Mezzogiorno Pattern: Sub-national Infrastructure Divergence
The per-LAU-2 empirical evidence on the structural feedback loop running through Italy's southern comuni. 7,901-comune cohort, 770-comune compound-stressor cluster, three scenarios, and the generalisable sub-national divergence pattern across OECD jurisdictions.
Stability and the Cost of Capital: How Regulatory Predictability Shapes Infrastructure Investment
Connects the per-region adaptation-trajectory surface to the sovereign-spread and infrastructure-investment cost-of-capital register. Addresses the empirical question: what is the cost-of-capital premium attributable to political-uncertainty exposure on long-duration critical-infrastructure investment.
State of OECD Grid Resilience 2026 — SSI v4.2 Annual
The inaugural Flagship Annual. Cross-cohort year-overview: per-jurisdiction trajectory deltas 2026 over baseline, per-modifier surface evolution, cascade-event register, full per-substation diagnostic surface, and per-country adaptation-policy-action record.
Grey-Zone Infrastructure Exposure: Substation-Level Vulnerability to Deliberate Disruption
Extends the SSI Index methodology to grey-zone and hybrid-warfare cascade vectors at per-substation granularity. Combines climate-physical and deliberate-disruption on a single analytical surface. Addresses the EU CER Directive and the NATO + NIS2 frame on critical-entity protection.
Adaptation Justice and 4IR Distributive Impact: How R10 Lands at Comune Level
The per-comune empirical evidence on adaptation-justice and distributive impact. R10 reads at LAU-2 granularity with full attention to the per-NUTS-3 socioeconomic substrate. Addresses the EU Just Transition Mechanism and Social Climate Fund at per-community evidence level.
Foresight at Asset Level: A 3–5 Year Scenario Methodology
Documents the scenario architecture (central / sustained-investment / compound-shock), per-modifier trajectory modelling, P5/P95 envelope construction, per-event injection methodology, and prediction-validate discipline for per-substation 3–5 year forecast fans.
Eight slots reserved for emerging-event Themed Analyses
Reserved for responsive analyses on events that warrant structured response: cohort-specific deep-dives, methodology-extension pieces, policy-action analyses, or emerging events. Peer institutions are explicitly invited to propose Themed Analyses for any of these slots.
State of OECD Grid Resilience 2027 — SSI v5.0 Annual
Second Flagship Annual at the SSI v5.0 methodology version. Full extended R-modifier surface integrating climate-physical, governance, grey-zone, compute-load, and distributive-justice layers. Cohort-wide per-jurisdiction year-on-year trajectory with explicit v4.2-to-v5.0 methodology traceability.
Collaborate With Us
Six reports carry open co-authored chapter invitations. Peer institutions are explicitly invited to propose Themed Analyses for the eight open May–December 2027 slots. Submit a one-page abstract (title, sub-genre, intended reader cohort, empirical anchors, co-authorship terms) via the SSI Index methodology repository or direct contact. Response cadence: 7 working days.
All publications are released under CC BY-SA 4.0. The methodology is peer-reviewed (JIPR v16, Environmental Research: Energy). Editorial independence is a structural commitment — no single funder above 40% of operating budget, no commercial sponsorship that exposes the methodology to commercial-partner steer.
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